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Indonesia’s Presidential Election – A Step in the Right Direction          

Also a Note on the Hu Arrest

Although we shall not get the official results until 25 July from the counts so far it appears that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has won a clear majority in his quest for re-election to the presidency. The provisional count gives SBY 67%, Megawati 28%, and Kalla just under 10%. His victory has been widely welcomed, including by Australia, and it is now expected that Indonesia, under his confident leadership, will henceforth play a more assertive role in international relations. The victory will please President Obama, who sees Indonesia as a leading ally in his quest for a rapprochement with the world of Islam. It probably will enhance Australia’s relationship with Indonesia, though there are bound to be difficulties from time to time.  His victory is also a clear indication of Indonesia’s support for religious moderation.

However, thorny issues, like the long detention of five Australians at Merauke and the lingering shadow of those unexposed crimes against humanity in East Timor, will no doubt still be around. Then there is the situation is Papua, where an Australian has just been murdered in suspicious circumstances. The continuing frustrations of the West Papuans are still worrying for some like this columnist who was a diplomat when we callously decided to withdraw our support for Papuan self-determination just to please Jakarta, virtually colluding with a serious denial of the right to self determination. When their opposition was ruthlessly crushed under Suharto, we at best discouraged support or sympathy for their plight – as of course we did in the case of East Timor. 

Unfortunately, although there has been a significant shift to democracy in SBY’s Indonesia, control over West Papua still remains inappropriately in the hands of the TNI, whose methods have led to regular calls for investigation of human rights abuses – including from Indonesian humanitarian agencies. The failure to bring Munir's assassins to justice exposes the frailty of justice, when the military are involved.

Yudhoyono’s victory does, however, offer opportunities to bring our two nations closer together. He has been easy to deal with, and exhibits a commitment to democratic reform, which cannot be said of Megawati. She may have been the daughter of Indonesia’s renowned founder, President Sukarno, but she had not distinguished herself in her term as president.  Despite the fact that her father had some difficulty with TNI generals, who eventually toppled him, Megawati became too close to them, finally selecting as a running mate, Probowo,  a former Kopassus general whose capacity to evade justice for war crimes allegations exposes a serious weakness in the strength of Indonesian democracy. It would have constituted a serious blow to Indonesian democracy if Prabowo and Wiranto had been elected.

Under SBY, on the other hand, Indonesians have become more democratic, more open and the secular nature of the state has been confirmed. The Indonesian economy has fared better than most Asian economies in the global economic crisis, still managing to maintain a modest pace of economic growth. I don’t fully agree with those who now describe Indonesia as a democracy, but it is certainly heading in the right direction. Some human rights issues, like Papuan self-determination, TNI accountability, and human rights implementation need more attention before their democracy can be said to be properly functioning.  The other presidential candidate, SBY’s former running mate, Jusuf Kalla, had a disappointing result, though he did manage to gain the majority of votes in his home island of Sulawesi.

While Mega continues to dispute the outcome, Kalla has admitted defeat and has sought reconciliation with SBY. He offered his congratulations - and loyalty -to the victorious president, while his Golkar party may also now get behind the president. Kalla is an experienced politician and a Moslem moderate, who served as a minister under Megawati’s presidency.  SBY is reported to have offered him a significant role in his administration.Although Mega emerged as the clear second preference, the result is a big disappointment for someone who was once regarded as the democratic alternative to Suharto. But she was given an opportunity in her first term, and turned out to be unimpressive leader, with a stronger preference for shopping than for reform.

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It is still hard to know what to make of the case of Hu Stern, for the charges against him are unclear. Clearly he has done something the Chinese leadership feels strongly about. Although we consider him Australian, no doubt the Chinese have another view, one that expects a level of continuing loyalty from the so-called ‘overseas Chinese’. However, on the face of it his arrest was a heavy-handed action, one that would not seem to be justified, by official explanations. Perhaps it is a timely warning to those, like Paul Keating, who eulogize the new China as our shining future. Its modernisation may be strikingly impressive, especially its rapid pace of modernisation, but for some time it has been evident that reform of Mao’s totalitarian system has been about big changes in material benefits – especially for those participating in industrialisation - but with insignificant advances in political and human rights reform. The Hu incident, along with other issues like Tibet, highlights the importance of pressing for democratisation, in terms of those human rights conventions that China has now taken on board. Today, as one of the great economic and military powers, it is imperative that its government behaves in accordance with UN humanitarian conventions.Its economic prowess might dazzle us, but do remember –‘all that glitters is not gold’!